SKETS Delta Monitor

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BTC Scouts

Funding BasisNEUTRAL · 1.4

LiquidityNEUTRAL · 0.0

MomentumNEUTRAL · 4.0

Open InterestLONG · 10.3

Options ConfirmationSHORT · 10.0

TrendNEUTRAL · 1.2

VolatilityLONG · 9.6

VolumeLONG · 9.9

ETH Scouts

Funding BasisNEUTRAL · 2.6

LiquidityNEUTRAL · 0.0

MomentumNEUTRAL · 0.8

Open InterestLONG · 10.0

Options ConfirmationSHORT · 10.0

TrendNEUTRAL · 0.4

VolatilityLONG · 8.8

VolumeLONG · 9.8

Dev Research · MQE Asset Context V1

SHADOW ONLY — champion entries are unchanged. Classifies fresh impulses, continuation, late stacks, reversal conflicts, re-entry and post-exit exhaustion independently for BTC and ETH.

Asset	Signal	Classification	Score	Hypothetical	Champion actual	Evidence
BTC	LONG	OPPOSITE DIRECTION EARLY CONFLICT	15	REJECT	CHAMPION_CANDIDATE	{"authority":false,"classification":"OPPOSITE_DIRECTION_EARLY_CONFLICT","context_score":15,"evidence":["opposite_position_open","old_thesis_not_objectively_broken","reversal_not_confirmed"],"hypothetical_action":"REJECT","shadow_only":true,"version":"MQE_ASSET_CONTEXT_V1"}
BTC	LONG	OPPOSITE DIRECTION EARLY CONFLICT	15	REJECT	CHAMPION_CANDIDATE	{"authority":false,"classification":"OPPOSITE_DIRECTION_EARLY_CONFLICT","context_score":15,"evidence":["opposite_position_open","old_thesis_not_objectively_broken","reversal_not_confirmed"],"hypothetical_action":"REJECT","shadow_only":true,"version":"MQE_ASSET_CONTEXT_V1"}
BTC	LONG	OPPOSITE DIRECTION EARLY CONFLICT	15	REJECT	CHAMPION_CANDIDATE	{"authority":false,"classification":"OPPOSITE_DIRECTION_EARLY_CONFLICT","context_score":15,"evidence":["opposite_position_open","old_thesis_not_objectively_broken","reversal_not_confirmed"],"hypothetical_action":"REJECT","shadow_only":true,"version":"MQE_ASSET_CONTEXT_V1"}
BTC	LONG	OPPOSITE DIRECTION EARLY CONFLICT	15	REJECT	CHAMPION_CANDIDATE	{"authority":false,"classification":"OPPOSITE_DIRECTION_EARLY_CONFLICT","context_score":15,"evidence":["opposite_position_open","old_thesis_not_objectively_broken","reversal_not_confirmed"],"hypothetical_action":"REJECT","shadow_only":true,"version":"MQE_ASSET_CONTEXT_V1"}
BTC	LONG	OPPOSITE DIRECTION EARLY CONFLICT	15	REJECT	CHAMPION_CANDIDATE	{"authority":false,"classification":"OPPOSITE_DIRECTION_EARLY_CONFLICT","context_score":15,"evidence":["opposite_position_open","old_thesis_not_objectively_broken","reversal_not_confirmed"],"hypothetical_action":"REJECT","shadow_only":true,"version":"MQE_ASSET_CONTEXT_V1"}
BTC	LONG	OPPOSITE DIRECTION EARLY CONFLICT	15	REJECT	CHAMPION_CANDIDATE	{"authority":false,"classification":"OPPOSITE_DIRECTION_EARLY_CONFLICT","context_score":15,"evidence":["opposite_position_open","old_thesis_not_objectively_broken","reversal_not_confirmed"],"hypothetical_action":"REJECT","shadow_only":true,"version":"MQE_ASSET_CONTEXT_V1"}
BTC	LONG	OPPOSITE DIRECTION EARLY CONFLICT	15	REJECT	CHAMPION_CANDIDATE	{"authority":false,"classification":"OPPOSITE_DIRECTION_EARLY_CONFLICT","context_score":15,"evidence":["opposite_position_open","old_thesis_not_objectively_broken","reversal_not_confirmed"],"hypothetical_action":"REJECT","shadow_only":true,"version":"MQE_ASSET_CONTEXT_V1"}
BTC	LONG	OPPOSITE DIRECTION EARLY CONFLICT	15	REJECT	CHAMPION_CANDIDATE	{"authority":false,"classification":"OPPOSITE_DIRECTION_EARLY_CONFLICT","context_score":15,"evidence":["opposite_position_open","old_thesis_not_objectively_broken","reversal_not_confirmed"],"hypothetical_action":"REJECT","shadow_only":true,"version":"MQE_ASSET_CONTEXT_V1"}
BTC	LONG	OPPOSITE DIRECTION EARLY CONFLICT	15	REJECT	CHAMPION_CANDIDATE	{"authority":false,"classification":"OPPOSITE_DIRECTION_EARLY_CONFLICT","context_score":15,"evidence":["opposite_position_open","old_thesis_not_objectively_broken","reversal_not_confirmed"],"hypothetical_action":"REJECT","shadow_only":true,"version":"MQE_ASSET_CONTEXT_V1"}
ETH	LONG	SAME DIRECTION LATE STACK	20	REJECT	CHAMPION_CANDIDATE	{"authority":false,"classification":"SAME_DIRECTION_LATE_STACK","context_score":20,"evidence":["same_direction_position_open","mature_existing_impulse","protection_or_mfe_active","no_renewed_acceleration"],"hypothetical_action":"REJECT","shadow_only":true,"version":"MQE_ASSET_CONTEXT_V1"}
BTC	LONG	OPPOSITE DIRECTION EARLY CONFLICT	15	REJECT	CHAMPION_CANDIDATE	{"authority":false,"classification":"OPPOSITE_DIRECTION_EARLY_CONFLICT","context_score":15,"evidence":["opposite_position_open","old_thesis_not_objectively_broken","reversal_not_confirmed"],"hypothetical_action":"REJECT","shadow_only":true,"version":"MQE_ASSET_CONTEXT_V1"}
ETH	LONG	SAME DIRECTION LATE STACK	20	REJECT	CHAMPION_CANDIDATE	{"authority":false,"classification":"SAME_DIRECTION_LATE_STACK","context_score":20,"evidence":["same_direction_position_open","mature_existing_impulse","protection_or_mfe_active","no_renewed_acceleration"],"hypothetical_action":"REJECT","shadow_only":true,"version":"MQE_ASSET_CONTEXT_V1"}
BTC	LONG	OPPOSITE DIRECTION EARLY CONFLICT	15	REJECT	CHAMPION_CANDIDATE	{"authority":false,"classification":"OPPOSITE_DIRECTION_EARLY_CONFLICT","context_score":15,"evidence":["opposite_position_open","old_thesis_not_objectively_broken","reversal_not_confirmed"],"hypothetical_action":"REJECT","shadow_only":true,"version":"MQE_ASSET_CONTEXT_V1"}
ETH	LONG	SAME DIRECTION LATE STACK	20	REJECT	CHAMPION_CANDIDATE	{"authority":false,"classification":"SAME_DIRECTION_LATE_STACK","context_score":20,"evidence":["same_direction_position_open","mature_existing_impulse","protection_or_mfe_active","no_renewed_acceleration"],"hypothetical_action":"REJECT","shadow_only":true,"version":"MQE_ASSET_CONTEXT_V1"}
BTC	LONG	OPPOSITE DIRECTION EARLY CONFLICT	15	REJECT	CHAMPION_CANDIDATE	{"authority":false,"classification":"OPPOSITE_DIRECTION_EARLY_CONFLICT","context_score":15,"evidence":["opposite_position_open","old_thesis_not_objectively_broken","reversal_not_confirmed"],"hypothetical_action":"REJECT","shadow_only":true,"version":"MQE_ASSET_CONTEXT_V1"}
ETH	LONG	SAME DIRECTION LATE STACK	20	REJECT	CHAMPION_CANDIDATE	{"authority":false,"classification":"SAME_DIRECTION_LATE_STACK","context_score":20,"evidence":["same_direction_position_open","mature_existing_impulse","protection_or_mfe_active","no_renewed_acceleration"],"hypothetical_action":"REJECT","shadow_only":true,"version":"MQE_ASSET_CONTEXT_V1"}
ETH	LONG	SAME DIRECTION LATE STACK	20	REJECT	CHAMPION_CANDIDATE	{"authority":false,"classification":"SAME_DIRECTION_LATE_STACK","context_score":20,"evidence":["same_direction_position_open","mature_existing_impulse","protection_or_mfe_active","no_renewed_acceleration"],"hypothetical_action":"REJECT","shadow_only":true,"version":"MQE_ASSET_CONTEXT_V1"}
ETH	LONG	SAME DIRECTION LATE STACK	20	REJECT	CHAMPION_CANDIDATE	{"authority":false,"classification":"SAME_DIRECTION_LATE_STACK","context_score":20,"evidence":["same_direction_position_open","mature_existing_impulse","protection_or_mfe_active","no_renewed_acceleration"],"hypothetical_action":"REJECT","shadow_only":true,"version":"MQE_ASSET_CONTEXT_V1"}
ETH	LONG	SAME DIRECTION LATE STACK	20	REJECT	CHAMPION_CANDIDATE	{"authority":false,"classification":"SAME_DIRECTION_LATE_STACK","context_score":20,"evidence":["same_direction_position_open","mature_existing_impulse","protection_or_mfe_active","no_renewed_acceleration"],"hypothetical_action":"REJECT","shadow_only":true,"version":"MQE_ASSET_CONTEXT_V1"}
ETH	LONG	SAME DIRECTION LATE STACK	20	REJECT	CHAMPION_CANDIDATE	{"authority":false,"classification":"SAME_DIRECTION_LATE_STACK","context_score":20,"evidence":["same_direction_position_open","mature_existing_impulse","protection_or_mfe_active","no_renewed_acceleration"],"hypothetical_action":"REJECT","shadow_only":true,"version":"MQE_ASSET_CONTEXT_V1"}

Dev Research · Entry Persistence

3/5/10/15-second executable counterfactuals. No active delay or gate.

Contract	Window	MFE	MAE	Zero-MFE warning	Hypothetical	Best confirmed ask
C-BTC-76400-230826	15s	1.47%	-1.91%	NO	DELAY	—
C-BTC-76400-230826	15s	1.47%	-1.91%	NO	DELAY	—
C-BTC-76400-230826	15s	1.21%	-1.91%	NO	DELAY	—
C-BTC-76400-230826	15s	1.21%	-1.91%	NO	DELAY	—
C-BTC-76400-230826	10s	1.21%	-1.91%	NO	DELAY	—
C-BTC-76400-230826	10s	1.21%	-1.91%	NO	DELAY	—
C-BTC-76400-230826	10s	0.61%	-1.91%	NO	DELAY	—
C-BTC-76400-230826	10s	0.61%	-1.91%	NO	DELAY	—
C-BTC-76400-230826	5s	0.61%	-1.91%	NO	DELAY	—
C-BTC-76400-230826	5s	0.61%	-1.91%	NO	DELAY	—
C-BTC-76400-230826	3s	0.00%	-1.91%	YES	REJECT	—
C-BTC-76400-230826	5s	0.00%	-1.91%	YES	REJECT	—
C-BTC-76400-230826	3s	0.00%	-1.91%	YES	REJECT	—
C-BTC-76400-230826	3s	0.00%	-1.91%	YES	REJECT	—
C-BTC-76400-230826	5s	0.00%	-1.91%	YES	REJECT	—
C-BTC-76400-230826	3s	0.00%	-1.91%	YES	REJECT	—
C-BTC-76400-230826	15s	0.00%	-1.84%	YES	DELAY	—
C-BTC-76400-230826	15s	0.00%	-1.84%	YES	DELAY	—
C-BTC-76400-230826	15s	0.00%	-1.84%	YES	REJECT	—
C-BTC-76400-230826	10s	0.00%	-1.84%	YES	REJECT	—

Dev Research · Guardian Classification

Structural failure, temporary pullback, recovery, exhaustion and reversal remain counterfactual; exit authority is disabled.

Position	Classification	Authority	Evidence
#9	EXHAUSTION	SHADOW	{"assessment_state":"DORMANT","classification":"EXHAUSTION","executable_exit":false,"option_failed":false,"option_return_pct":6.008583690987124,"recovery_windows":2,"shadow_only":true,"state":"HEALTHY","underlying_failed":true,"version":"MQE_THESIS_GUARDIAN_V1","weak_windows":0}
#8	UNKNOWN	SHADOW	{"assessment_state":"IGNITION_DETECTED","classification":"UNKNOWN","executable_exit":false,"option_failed":false,"option_return_pct":2.8871391076115462,"recovery_windows":53,"shadow_only":true,"state":"HEALTHY","underlying_failed":true,"version":"MQE_THESIS_GUARDIAN_V1","weak_windows":0}
#7	UNKNOWN	SHADOW	{"assessment_state":"BREAKOUT_TEST","classification":"UNKNOWN","executable_exit":false,"option_failed":false,"option_return_pct":1.0683760683760684,"recovery_windows":142,"shadow_only":true,"state":"HEALTHY","underlying_failed":true,"version":"MQE_THESIS_GUARDIAN_V1","weak_windows":0}
#5	UNKNOWN	SHADOW	{"assessment_state":"MOMENTUM_EXHAUSTING","classification":"UNKNOWN","executable_exit":false,"option_failed":false,"option_return_pct":5.622837370242214,"recovery_windows":298,"shadow_only":true,"state":"HEALTHY","underlying_failed":true,"version":"MQE_THESIS_GUARDIAN_V1","weak_windows":0}
#6	STRUCTURAL FAILURE	SHADOW	{"assessment_state":"BREAKOUT_TEST","classification":"STRUCTURAL_FAILURE","executable_exit":false,"option_failed":true,"option_return_pct":-4.545454545454546,"recovery_windows":0,"shadow_only":true,"state":"THESIS_FAILED","underlying_failed":true,"version":"MQE_THESIS_GUARDIAN_V1","weak_windows":6}
#4	UNKNOWN	SHADOW	{"assessment_state":"MOMENTUM_EXHAUSTING","classification":"UNKNOWN","executable_exit":false,"option_failed":false,"option_return_pct":5.9869036482694105,"recovery_windows":30,"shadow_only":true,"state":"HEALTHY","underlying_failed":false,"version":"MQE_THESIS_GUARDIAN_V1","weak_windows":0}
#1	THESIS FAILED	SHADOW	{"assessment_state":"IGNITION_DETECTED","option_failed":true,"option_return_pct":-4.276615104640585,"underlying_failed":true}
#3	HEALTHY	SHADOW	{"assessment_state":"PRESSURE_BUILDING","option_failed":false,"option_return_pct":3.1714568880079286,"underlying_failed":true}
#2	HEALTHY	SHADOW	{"assessment_state":"DORMANT","option_failed":false,"option_return_pct":2.9439696106362776,"underlying_failed":true}

Dev Research · Causal Mentor Attribution

Signal, contract, execution, exit and final trade grades are separated. Contract quality compares every eligible same-time PRIME candidate.

Position	Signal	Contract	Execution	Exit	Trade
#9	GOOD	GOOD	GOOD	GOOD	WIN
#8	GOOD	GOOD	GOOD	GOOD	WIN
#7	GOOD	BAD	GOOD	GOOD	WIN
#5	GOOD	BAD	GOOD	GOOD	WIN
#6	GOOD	GOOD	GOOD	BAD	LOSS
#4	GOOD	GOOD	GOOD	GOOD	WIN
#3	GOOD	GOOD	GOOD	BAD	LOSS
#2	GOOD	GOOD	GOOD	GOOD	WIN
#1	GOOD	GOOD	GOOD	BAD	LOSS
#1	GOOD	GOOD	GOOD	BAD	LOSS
#3	GOOD	GOOD	GOOD	BAD	LOSS
#2	GOOD	GOOD	GOOD	GOOD	WIN

Dev Research · PRIME Alternatives

Legacy default versus bounded ATM, adjacent ITM and permitted OTM candidates by expiry bucket. OI authority remains zero.

Setup	Legacy	Selected	Expiry bucket	Candidate moneyness / option response
BTC LONG	C-BTC-76400-230826	C-BTC-76400-230826	48_72	ATM: C-BTC-76400-230826 / response 71.1 · ITM: C-BTC-76200-230826 / response 64.8
BTC LONG	C-BTC-76400-230826	C-BTC-76400-230826	48_72	ATM: C-BTC-76400-230826 / response 71.1 · ITM: C-BTC-76200-230826 / response 73.1
BTC LONG	C-BTC-76400-230826	C-BTC-76400-230826	48_72	ATM: C-BTC-76400-230826 / response 71.1 · ITM: C-BTC-76200-230826 / response 73.1
BTC LONG	C-BTC-76400-230826	C-BTC-76400-230826	48_72	ATM: C-BTC-76400-230826 / response 69.2 · ITM: C-BTC-76200-230826 / response 78.6
BTC LONG	C-BTC-76400-230826	C-BTC-76400-230826	48_72	ATM: C-BTC-76400-230826 / response 80.4 · ITM: C-BTC-76200-230826 / response 58.8
BTC LONG	C-BTC-76400-230826	C-BTC-76400-230826	48_72	ATM: C-BTC-76400-230826 / response 80.4 · ITM: C-BTC-76200-230826 / response 58.8
BTC LONG	C-BTC-76400-230826	C-BTC-76400-230826	48_72	ATM: C-BTC-76400-230826 / response 80.4 · ITM: C-BTC-76200-230826 / response 58.8
BTC LONG	C-BTC-76400-230826	C-BTC-76400-230826	48_72	ATM: C-BTC-76400-230826 / response 25.3 · ITM: C-BTC-76200-230826 / response 36.9
BTC LONG	C-BTC-76400-230826	C-BTC-76400-230826	48_72	ATM: C-BTC-76400-230826 / response 40.4 · ITM: C-BTC-76200-230826 / response 43.2
ETH LONG	C-ETH-2360-230826	C-ETH-2360-230826	48_72	ITM: C-ETH-2360-230826 / response 90.7 · ATM: C-ETH-2380-230826 / response —

Asset-Calibrated Adaptive Weights

BTC and ETH learn separate rolling Scout baselines and bounded performance weights.

Asset	Component	Applied weight	Graded outcomes	Correct / Incorrect	Usage	Updated (IST)
BTC	Council	1.000×	11	3 / 8	LEARNING APPROVALS 3/10	21 Aug 2026, 01:24:45 PM IST
BTC	Funding Basis	0.833×	1	0 / 1	ACTIVE	21 Aug 2026, 01:23:28 PM IST
BTC	Liquidity	1.000×	0	0 / 0	ACTIVE	21 Aug 2026, 01:23:28 PM IST
BTC	Mentor	1.100×	3	2 / 1	ACTIVE	21 Aug 2026, 01:24:45 PM IST
BTC	Momentum	1.167×	7	5 / 2	ACTIVE	21 Aug 2026, 01:23:28 PM IST
BTC	Open Interest	1.000×	8	4 / 4	ACTIVE	21 Aug 2026, 01:24:45 PM IST
BTC	Options Confirmation	0.885×	11	4 / 7	ACTIVE	21 Aug 2026, 01:24:45 PM IST
BTC	Trap	1.000×	0	0 / 0	ACTIVE	21 Aug 2026, 01:23:28 PM IST
BTC	Trend	1.056×	7	4 / 3	ACTIVE	21 Aug 2026, 01:23:28 PM IST
BTC	Volatility	1.115×	11	7 / 4	ACTIVE	21 Aug 2026, 01:24:45 PM IST
BTC	Volume	1.115×	11	7 / 4	ACTIVE	21 Aug 2026, 01:24:45 PM IST
ETH	Council	1.000×	6	4 / 2	LEARNING APPROVALS 4/10	21 Aug 2026, 01:28:43 PM IST
ETH	Funding Basis	1.000×	0	0 / 0	ACTIVE	21 Aug 2026, 01:23:28 PM IST
ETH	Liquidity	1.000×	0	0 / 0	ACTIVE	21 Aug 2026, 01:23:28 PM IST
ETH	Mentor	0.833×	1	0 / 1	ACTIVE	21 Aug 2026, 01:28:43 PM IST
ETH	Momentum	1.100×	3	2 / 1	ACTIVE	21 Aug 2026, 01:23:28 PM IST
ETH	Open Interest	1.071×	5	3 / 2	ACTIVE	21 Aug 2026, 01:28:43 PM IST
ETH	Options Confirmation	0.875×	6	2 / 4	ACTIVE	21 Aug 2026, 01:28:43 PM IST
ETH	Trap	1.000×	0	0 / 0	ACTIVE	21 Aug 2026, 01:23:28 PM IST
ETH	Trend	1.214×	5	4 / 1	ACTIVE	21 Aug 2026, 01:23:28 PM IST
ETH	Volatility	1.125×	6	4 / 2	ACTIVE	21 Aug 2026, 01:28:43 PM IST
ETH	Volume	1.125×	6	4 / 2	ACTIVE	21 Aug 2026, 01:28:43 PM IST

Mentor Coach & Final Risk

Mentor remains advisory; objective safety remains authoritative.

Asset	Similar success	Confidence	Similar cases	Mean similarity	Coach advice	Coach evidence	Final Risk	Decision reasons
BTC	60.2%	90.0%	16	86.5%	SUPPORT	["volume", "open_interest", "volatility", "SETUP_SIMILAR_CASES_16", "MEAN_SIMILARITY_86.5", "EXPECTED_NET_RETURN_0.772%"] []	WAIT	["COUNCIL_THRESHOLD_NOT_MET"]
ETH	68.7%	90.0%	10	87.8%	SUPPORT	["volume", "open_interest", "volatility", "SETUP_SIMILAR_CASES_10", "MEAN_SIMILARITY_87.8", "EXPECTED_NET_RETURN_0.086%"] []	WAIT	["COUNCIL_THRESHOLD_NOT_MET"]

Liquidity Selection Score V1

Isolated ranking · DISABLED · LEGACY FALLBACK. Legacy Shadow Twins consume no capital and place no orders.

Selection observations0

Changed from legacy0

Average score0.0

Average spread0.000%

Liquidity win rateCOLLECTING

Matched comparisons0

Liquidity wins0

Legacy wins0

Selection advantage₹0

IST	Source	Setup	Legacy	Selected	Score	Spread	OI	Responsible	Outcome	Selected P&L	Legacy state	Legacy P&L
Collecting selections.

Model Promotion Gate

Historical cases0

Holdout cases—

Holdout win rate—

Expectancy after costs—

PromotionBLOCKED

Experimental Automatic Paper Entry

Signal, Quality Gate, Trap, Final Risk, confirmation, expiry, cooldown, capital, duplicate-contract and aggregate-risk conditions remain mandatory. Mentor remains advisory.

MQE PRIME V1 · Paper Contract Race

Frozen MQE champion signal · Legacy champion/default · response-first bounded same-expiry race · OI authority zero · live route disabled.

Opportunities694

Changed Legacy25

Paper entries11

Paired opportunities694

Causal labels12

Live authorityDISABLED

Thesis GuardianSHADOW ONLY

PersistenceBACKGROUND COALESCED

IST	Setup	Legacy	Selected	Reason	Expiry bucket	Response gate	Outcome
21 Aug 2026, 01:31:50 PM IST	BTC LONG	C-BTC-76400-230826	C-BTC-76400-230826	LEGACY DEFAULT	48_72	ENTRY_SUFFICIENT	OBSERVED
21 Aug 2026, 01:31:48 PM IST	BTC LONG	C-BTC-76400-230826	C-BTC-76400-230826	LEGACY DEFAULT	48_72	ENTRY_SUFFICIENT	OBSERVED
21 Aug 2026, 01:31:47 PM IST	BTC LONG	C-BTC-76400-230826	C-BTC-76400-230826	LEGACY DEFAULT	48_72	ENTRY_SUFFICIENT	OBSERVED
21 Aug 2026, 01:31:46 PM IST	BTC LONG	C-BTC-76400-230826	C-BTC-76400-230826	LEGACY DEFAULT	48_72	ENTRY_SUFFICIENT	OBSERVED
21 Aug 2026, 01:31:23 PM IST	BTC LONG	C-BTC-76400-230826	C-BTC-76400-230826	LEGACY DEFAULT	48_72	ENTRY_SUFFICIENT	OBSERVED
21 Aug 2026, 01:31:21 PM IST	BTC LONG	C-BTC-76400-230826	C-BTC-76400-230826	LEGACY DEFAULT	48_72	ENTRY_SUFFICIENT	OBSERVED
21 Aug 2026, 01:31:20 PM IST	BTC LONG	C-BTC-76400-230826	C-BTC-76400-230826	LEGACY DEFAULT	48_72	ENTRY_SUFFICIENT	OBSERVED
21 Aug 2026, 01:31:19 PM IST	BTC LONG	C-BTC-76400-230826	C-BTC-76400-230826	LEGACY DEFAULT	48_72	ENTRY_SUFFICIENT	OBSERVED
21 Aug 2026, 01:31:18 PM IST	BTC LONG	C-BTC-76400-230826	C-BTC-76400-230826	LEGACY DEFAULT	48_72	ENTRY_SUFFICIENT	OBSERVED
21 Aug 2026, 01:30:29 PM IST	ETH LONG	C-ETH-2360-230826	C-ETH-2360-230826	LEGACY DEFAULT	48_72	ENTRY_SUFFICIENT	OBSERVED
21 Aug 2026, 01:30:29 PM IST	BTC LONG	C-BTC-76400-230826	C-BTC-76200-230826	LEGACY INVALID BOUNDED FALLBACK	48_72	ENTRY_SUFFICIENT	OBSERVED
21 Aug 2026, 01:30:28 PM IST	ETH LONG	C-ETH-2360-230826	C-ETH-2360-230826	LEGACY DEFAULT	48_72	ENTRY_SUFFICIENT	OBSERVED
21 Aug 2026, 01:30:28 PM IST	BTC LONG	C-BTC-76400-230826	C-BTC-76200-230826	LEGACY INVALID BOUNDED FALLBACK	48_72	ENTRY_SUFFICIENT	OBSERVED
21 Aug 2026, 01:30:27 PM IST	ETH LONG	C-ETH-2360-230826	C-ETH-2360-230826	LEGACY DEFAULT	48_72	ENTRY_SUFFICIENT	OBSERVED
21 Aug 2026, 01:30:27 PM IST	BTC LONG	C-BTC-76400-230826	C-BTC-76200-230826	LEGACY INVALID BOUNDED FALLBACK	48_72	ENTRY_SUFFICIENT	OBSERVED
21 Aug 2026, 01:30:26 PM IST	ETH LONG	C-ETH-2360-230826	C-ETH-2360-230826	LEGACY DEFAULT	48_72	ENTRY_SUFFICIENT	OBSERVED
21 Aug 2026, 01:30:21 PM IST	ETH LONG	C-ETH-2360-230826	C-ETH-2360-230826	LEGACY DEFAULT	48_72	ENTRY_SUFFICIENT	OBSERVED
21 Aug 2026, 01:30:20 PM IST	ETH LONG	C-ETH-2360-230826	C-ETH-2360-230826	LEGACY DEFAULT	48_72	ENTRY_SUFFICIENT	OBSERVED
21 Aug 2026, 01:30:19 PM IST	ETH LONG	C-ETH-2360-230826	C-ETH-2360-230826	LEGACY DEFAULT	48_72	ENTRY_SUFFICIENT	OBSERVED
21 Aug 2026, 01:30:18 PM IST	ETH LONG	C-ETH-2360-230826	C-ETH-2360-230826	LEGACY DEFAULT	48_72	ENTRY_SUFFICIENT	OBSERVED

Instrument coverage

Contract type	Count
call_options	578
perpetual_futures	2
put_options	559

MQE Performance Attribution V1

Read-only shadow intelligence at the bottom of this dashboard. Baseline MQE_V1_BASELINE_2026_08 is frozen; challengers cannot place trades or alter MQE.

Events5583

Baseline approvals540

Paper executions11

Threshold versionMQE_THRESHOLDS_2026_08_V1

Component Leaderboard

Component	Net value	Losses saved	Profit missed	Complete samples	Status
Ignition	37.27R	77.86R	40.72R	3909	KEEP
Flow	-1.90R	7.47R	4.64R	3909	RESEARCH
Liquidity	-9.79R	0.34R	0.00R	3909	RESEARCH
Acceptance	0.07R	12.28R	6.61R	3909	KEEP
Spot Perpetual	2.97R	9.37R	6.40R	3909	KEEP
Remaining Energy	13.40R	19.46R	5.32R	3909	KEEP

Latest Decision Waterfall

Component	Role	MQS delta	Threshold	Decision	Reason
Ignition	minimum gate	-0.8	60	REJECT	BELOW_THRESHOLD
Flow	minimum gate	-3.2	60	REJECT	BELOW_THRESHOLD
Liquidity	minimum gate	4.4	60	PASS	COMPONENT_PASS
Acceptance	timing controller	-3.7	70	REJECT	BELOW_THRESHOLD
Spot Perpetual	score contributor	2.4	—	PASS	COMPONENT_PASS
Remaining Energy	timing controller	-1.8	60	REJECT	BELOW_THRESHOLD

Saved Losers

Event	Setup	Component	Net	MFE	MAE
MQE-BTC-SHORT-20260821-002696	BTC SHORT	ignition	-0.74R	0.00%	-1.49%
MQE-BTC-SHORT-20260821-002696	BTC SHORT	spot perpetual	-0.74R	0.00%	-1.49%
MQE-BTC-SHORT-20260821-002698	BTC SHORT	ignition	-0.74R	0.00%	-1.49%
MQE-BTC-SHORT-20260821-002719	BTC SHORT	ignition	-0.69R	0.00%	-1.77%
MQE-BTC-SHORT-20260821-002803	BTC SHORT	ignition	-0.61R	0.10%	-1.58%
MQE-BTC-SHORT-20260821-002802	BTC SHORT	ignition	-0.61R	0.10%	-1.58%
MQE-BTC-SHORT-20260821-002779	BTC SHORT	ignition	-0.59R	0.07%	-1.61%
MQE-BTC-SHORT-20260821-002839	BTC SHORT	acceptance	-0.58R	0.01%	-1.67%
MQE-BTC-SHORT-20260821-002835	BTC SHORT	acceptance	-0.58R	0.01%	-1.67%
MQE-BTC-SHORT-20260821-002864	BTC SHORT	ignition	-0.58R	0.00%	-1.68%
MQE-BTC-SHORT-20260821-002843	BTC SHORT	ignition	-0.58R	0.03%	-1.65%
MQE-BTC-SHORT-20260821-002882	BTC SHORT	ignition	-0.58R	0.00%	-1.70%
MQE-BTC-SHORT-20260821-002888	BTC SHORT	ignition	-0.57R	0.00%	-1.70%
MQE-BTC-SHORT-20260821-002879	BTC SHORT	ignition	-0.56R	0.00%	-1.70%
MQE-BTC-SHORT-20260821-002880	BTC SHORT	ignition	-0.56R	0.00%	-1.70%
MQE-BTC-SHORT-20260821-002877	BTC SHORT	ignition	-0.56R	0.00%	-1.70%
MQE-BTC-SHORT-20260821-002873	BTC SHORT	ignition	-0.55R	0.00%	-1.69%
MQE-BTC-SHORT-20260821-002813	BTC SHORT	ignition	-0.55R	0.10%	-1.58%
MQE-BTC-SHORT-20260821-002914	BTC SHORT	acceptance	-0.54R	0.00%	-1.76%
MQE-BTC-SHORT-20260821-002910	BTC SHORT	ignition	-0.54R	0.00%	-1.73%

Missed Winners

Event	Setup	Component	Net	MFE	MAE
MQE-BTC-LONG-20260821-002731	BTC LONG	acceptance	0.65R	1.50%	-0.18%
MQE-BTC-LONG-20260821-002737	BTC LONG	flow	0.64R	1.49%	-0.19%
MQE-BTC-LONG-20260821-002728	BTC LONG	flow	0.64R	1.49%	-0.19%
MQE-BTC-LONG-20260821-002728	BTC LONG	ignition	0.64R	1.49%	-0.19%
MQE-BTC-LONG-20260821-002728	BTC LONG	spot perpetual	0.64R	1.49%	-0.19%
MQE-BTC-LONG-20260821-002702	BTC LONG	ignition	0.61R	1.23%	-0.18%
MQE-BTC-LONG-20260821-002722	BTC LONG	ignition	0.60R	1.54%	-0.14%
MQE-BTC-LONG-20260821-002745	BTC LONG	ignition	0.59R	1.48%	-0.20%
MQE-BTC-LONG-20260821-002746	BTC LONG	ignition	0.58R	1.48%	-0.21%
MQE-BTC-LONG-20260821-002724	BTC LONG	ignition	0.58R	1.51%	-0.18%
MQE-BTC-LONG-20260821-002925	BTC LONG	ignition	0.44R	1.49%	-0.16%
MQE-BTC-LONG-20260821-002901	BTC LONG	ignition	0.43R	1.46%	-0.22%
MQE-BTC-LONG-20260821-002929	BTC LONG	ignition	0.43R	1.47%	-0.19%
MQE-BTC-LONG-20260821-002663	BTC LONG	spot perpetual	0.42R	0.84%	-0.15%
MQE-BTC-LONG-20260821-002768	BTC LONG	remaining energy	0.42R	1.31%	-0.37%
MQE-BTC-LONG-20260821-002764	BTC LONG	remaining energy	0.42R	1.31%	-0.37%
MQE-ETH-SHORT-20260821-000488	ETH SHORT	ignition	0.40R	0.80%	-0.13%
MQE-BTC-LONG-20260821-002937	BTC LONG	ignition	0.39R	1.47%	-0.14%
MQE-BTC-LONG-20260821-002932	BTC LONG	acceptance	0.39R	1.47%	-0.19%
MQE-ETH-SHORT-20260821-000486	ETH SHORT	ignition	0.39R	0.78%	-0.15%

Threshold Curves

MQS	Trades	Win rate	Expectancy	MFE/MAE	Missed winners
60	2945	36.13%	-0.053R	0.56	373
65	2456	36.36%	-0.052R	0.55	544
70	1885	37.24%	-0.052R	0.55	735
75	1243	37.33%	-0.052R	0.55	973
78	798	36.22%	-0.056R	0.53	1148
80	518	36.29%	-0.053R	0.54	1249
85	55	40.00%	-0.062R	0.45	1415
90	0	—%	—R	—	1437

Baseline versus Static Challengers

Variant	Complete signals	Win rate	Expectancy
FULL_MQE	3909	39.15%	-0.043R
MQE_WITHOUT_ACCEPTANCE	3909	37.02%	-0.049R
MQE_WITHOUT_FLOW	3909	40.74%	-0.038R
MQE_WITHOUT_IGNITION	3909	37.50%	-0.047R
MQE_WITHOUT_LIQUIDITY	3909	40.38%	-0.040R
MQE_WITHOUT_MENTOR	3909	39.15%	-0.043R
MQE_WITHOUT_OI_STRUCTURE	3909	39.15%	-0.043R
MQE_WITHOUT_PRESSURE	3909	39.15%	-0.043R
MQE_WITHOUT_REMAINING_ENERGY	3909	37.46%	-0.055R
MQE_WITHOUT_SPOT_PERPETUAL	3909	39.66%	-0.040R
MQE_WITHOUT_TRAP_PREVENTION	3909	39.15%	-0.043R

Recent Approved and Rejected Events

Event	IST	Setup	State	MQS	Baseline	Execution	Net R
MQE-ETH-NEUTRAL-20260821-005583	21 Aug 2026, 01:32:09 PM IST	ETH NEUTRAL	DORMANT	—	REJECT	REJECTED	—R
MQE-BTC-LONG-20260821-005582	21 Aug 2026, 01:32:08 PM IST	BTC LONG	IGNITION DETECTED	67.6	REJECT	REJECTED	-0.05R
MQE-ETH-SHORT-20260821-005581	21 Aug 2026, 01:32:08 PM IST	ETH SHORT	IGNITION DETECTED	75.9	REJECT	REJECTED	-0.06R
MQE-ETH-NEUTRAL-20260821-005580	21 Aug 2026, 01:32:07 PM IST	ETH NEUTRAL	DORMANT	—	REJECT	REJECTED	—R
MQE-ETH-SHORT-20260821-005579	21 Aug 2026, 01:32:06 PM IST	ETH SHORT	IGNITION DETECTED	73.1	REJECT	REJECTED	-0.06R
MQE-ETH-SHORT-20260821-005578	21 Aug 2026, 01:32:05 PM IST	ETH SHORT	PRESSURE BUILDING	49.5	REJECT	REJECTED	-0.06R
MQE-ETH-SHORT-20260821-005577	21 Aug 2026, 01:32:03 PM IST	ETH SHORT	IGNITION DETECTED	44.9	REJECT	REJECTED	-0.06R
MQE-BTC-NEUTRAL-20260821-005576	21 Aug 2026, 01:32:02 PM IST	BTC NEUTRAL	DORMANT	—	REJECT	REJECTED	—R
MQE-ETH-NEUTRAL-20260821-005575	21 Aug 2026, 01:32:00 PM IST	ETH NEUTRAL	DORMANT	—	REJECT	REJECTED	—R
MQE-BTC-LONG-20260821-005574	21 Aug 2026, 01:32:00 PM IST	BTC LONG	PRESSURE BUILDING	43.8	REJECT	REJECTED	-0.04R
MQE-ETH-LONG-20260821-005573	21 Aug 2026, 01:31:56 PM IST	ETH LONG	IGNITION DETECTED	41.1	REJECT	REJECTED	-0.05R
MQE-ETH-LONG-20260821-005572	21 Aug 2026, 01:31:55 PM IST	ETH LONG	PRESSURE BUILDING	35.8	REJECT	REJECTED	-0.05R
MQE-BTC-LONG-20260821-005571	21 Aug 2026, 01:31:53 PM IST	BTC LONG	IGNITION DETECTED	53.5	REJECT	REJECTED	-0.04R
MQE-BTC-LONG-20260821-005570	21 Aug 2026, 01:31:52 PM IST	BTC LONG	ACCEPTANCE CONFIRMED	71.6	REJECT	REJECTED	-0.05R
MQE-BTC-LONG-20260821-005569	21 Aug 2026, 01:31:51 PM IST	BTC LONG	BREAKOUT TEST	68.6	REJECT	REJECTED	-0.05R
MQE-BTC-LONG-20260821-005568	21 Aug 2026, 01:31:46 PM IST	BTC LONG	TRADE ELIGIBLE	81.6	APPROVE	DUPLICATE_WAIT	-0.04R
MQE-BTC-LONG-20260821-005567	21 Aug 2026, 01:31:45 PM IST	BTC LONG	ACCEPTANCE CONFIRMED	75.0	REJECT	REJECTED	-0.04R
MQE-ETH-LONG-20260821-005566	21 Aug 2026, 01:31:44 PM IST	ETH LONG	IGNITION DETECTED	70.8	REJECT	REJECTED	-0.04R
MQE-ETH-NEUTRAL-20260821-005565	21 Aug 2026, 01:31:41 PM IST	ETH NEUTRAL	DORMANT	—	REJECT	REJECTED	—R
MQE-ETH-SHORT-20260821-005564	21 Aug 2026, 01:31:40 PM IST	ETH SHORT	IGNITION DETECTED	60.9	REJECT	REJECTED	-0.07R
MQE-ETH-NEUTRAL-20260821-005563	21 Aug 2026, 01:31:39 PM IST	ETH NEUTRAL	DORMANT	—	REJECT	REJECTED	—R
MQE-BTC-LONG-20260821-005562	21 Aug 2026, 01:31:39 PM IST	BTC LONG	IGNITION DETECTED	58.6	REJECT	REJECTED	-0.01R
MQE-ETH-SHORT-20260821-005561	21 Aug 2026, 01:31:38 PM IST	ETH SHORT	PRESSURE BUILDING	64.4	REJECT	REJECTED	-0.07R
MQE-BTC-NEUTRAL-20260821-005560	21 Aug 2026, 01:31:34 PM IST	BTC NEUTRAL	DORMANT	—	REJECT	REJECTED	—R
MQE-BTC-LONG-20260821-005559	21 Aug 2026, 01:31:33 PM IST	BTC LONG	PRESSURE BUILDING	71.4	REJECT	REJECTED	-0.01R
MQE-ETH-NEUTRAL-20260821-005558	21 Aug 2026, 01:31:31 PM IST	ETH NEUTRAL	DORMANT	—	REJECT	REJECTED	—R
MQE-BTC-LONG-20260821-005557	21 Aug 2026, 01:31:24 PM IST	BTC LONG	IGNITION DETECTED	60.1	REJECT	REJECTED	0.01R
MQE-ETH-LONG-20260821-005556	21 Aug 2026, 01:31:23 PM IST	ETH LONG	IGNITION DETECTED	54.4	REJECT	REJECTED	-0.05R
MQE-ETH-LONG-20260821-005555	21 Aug 2026, 01:31:21 PM IST	ETH LONG	MOMENTUM EXHAUSTING	73.7	REJECT	REJECTED	-0.04R
MQE-ETH-LONG-20260821-005554	21 Aug 2026, 01:31:19 PM IST	ETH LONG	BREAKOUT TEST	66.3	REJECT	REJECTED	-0.04R

MQE SENTINEL V1 · Shadow Exit Audit

Fixed 5% baseline remains the only controller. SENTINEL uses a separate executable bid/ask ledger and can only recommend shadow exits.

Shadow trades0

Active audits0

Baseline closed0

Historical audit references0Executable quotes unavailable

AuthoritySHADOW ONLY

Trade	Contract	Entry (IST)	Mechanical red	Core state	Recommendation	Shadow P&L	Baseline exit
Future MQE option trades will begin the executable-quote audit.

MQE SENTINEL REVALIDATION GATE V1 · RETIRED

HISTORICAL EVIDENCE ONLY — NO FORWARD PROCESSING OR EXIT AUTHORITY. Its preserved cohort remains available below for audit. MQE Thesis Guardian V1 is the new shadow-only research path.

Historical cohort0

Historical checkpoints0

Losses reduced (historical)0

StatusRETIRED

Exit authorityDISABLED

Trade	Contract	Executable P&L	Mechanical red	Behavioural	Direction health	Same-side	Opposite-side	Contract	Winner MAE / N	Recovery / Failure	State	Shadow decision	Shadow fill	Baseline P&L	Difference	Recovery classification	Baseline
Historical cohort is preserved.

Safety & APIs

Health · Summary · Intelligence · Adaptive weights · Calibration · Portfolio · Liquidity audit